September 2011 e-book sales: $80.3M

E-Book sales dipped a bit in September 2011, to $80.3M, but were more than double last year’s results, and were strong enough to carry e-books to a new record quarter of $251.7M in Q3, 2011. For the past 13 months:

• Sep 2010: $39.9 M
• Oct 2010: $40.7 M
• Nov 2010: $46.6 M
• Dec 2010: $49.5 M
• Jan 2011: $69.9 M
• Feb 2011: $90.3 M
• Mar 2011: $69.0 M
• Apr 2011: $72.8 M
• May 2011: $87.7 M
• June 2011: $80.2 M
• July 2011: $82.6M
• Aug 2011: $88.8M
• Sep 2011: $80.3M

Q3 2011 e-book sales: $251.7M

The quarterly sales of just over a quarter of a billion dollars help push e-books to $727.7M for the first 9 months of the year, an increase of 137.9% over last year, and close enough that a strong holiday push could put e-book sales at a billion dollars for the year, as I predicted after February’s sales.

While the AAP frustratingly has become more stingy with its print book sales figures, they did provide percentages that I used to estimate print book sales for the month (fortunately, I keep a spreadsheet with each month’s figures going back to last year). The percentage changes for print books, and my estimates for Sep 2011 sales:

• Adult hardcover: down 18.1%, est. $147.7M
• Adult trade paperback: flat, est. $111.5M
• Adult mass-market paper: down 54.3%, est. $31.0M
• Young adult hardcover: up 2.1%, est. $78.2M
• Young adult paperback: down 14.6%, est. $41.5M

Fairly brutal numbers across the board, with only a slight (2.1%) increase in young adult hardcover, flat adult trade paper sales, and decreases in the other categories, including a dramatic 54.3% decrease in mass-market paperback sales. People have said that mass-market paperback sales are the most susceptible to being replaced by e-book sales, since they are generally fiction novels that people read once and then discard or donate — as opposed to hardcovers that people like to display on their bookshelves. The numbers are bearing that out, as e-book sales, which just last year were below mass-market paperback, are now nearly triple. The AAP also pointed out that sales in all print trade segments were down for the 9-month period so far this year.

Based on those estimations, e-book sales accounted for 16.25% of combined print/e-book sales for the month, roughly double the 8.17% overall figure from 2010.

I’ve talked before about self-publishing, how it’s been a huge boon to my writing career, but also how authors should temper their expectations: realize that writing, editing, designing a cover for, formatting and converting, and marketing a self-published book is a lot of hard work, and is less likely than the lottery to make you rich. (For that matter, traditional publishing is hardly a high-percentage method for getting rich, or even making a decent living.)

Of course, just like with the lottery, there are a few unvarnished success stories that provide something for independent authors to aspire to. The two most exceptional are independent authors John Locke and Amanda Hocking. This week, Amazon announced that Hocking joined Locke (along with 12 traditionally-published authors) in the “Kindle Million Club,” by selling over a million copies of their books in the Amazon Kindle Store. (Twilight author Stephanie Meyer attained that lofty mark this week as well.)

Hocking began as a self-published, independent author, and her runaway success led to her accepting a four-book deal with St. Martin’s Press (a subsidiary of Macmillan) worth over $2 million.

The most interesting thing to me about Amazon’s press release was this note:

In addition to the more than 2 million books sold by John Locke and Amanda Hocking, 12 KDP authors have sold more than 200,000 books and 30 KDP authors have sold more than 100,000 books.

(KDP stands for “Kindle Direct Publishing.” It’s the method by which self-published authors may upload their own works to be sold in the Kindle Store.)

So, how likely are you to strike it rich by self-publishing? There are now over 1,000,000 titles in the Kindle Store, and probably at least 100,000 self-published authors selling their books through KDP. E-books on Amazon are sold for a minimum of 99 cents per title (netting the author $0.35), while many independently-published e-books (including my own) are sold for $2.99 (netting the author about $2.05). So, if we assume 100,000 self-published authors, of that number:

• 2 authors (0.002%) have sold 1,000,000 books, earning at least $350,000
• 12 authors (0.012%) have sold 200,000 books, earning at least $70,000 (and possibly $410,000)
• 30 authors (0.03%) have sold 100,000 books, earning at least $35,000 (and possibly $205,000)

Of course, those dollar amounts are before taxes (yes, Amazon sends a 1099-MISC, so you have to pay income taxes) and any expenses for agents, editing, cover design, e-book conversion, advertising, web hosting, etc. And I think it’s fair to assume that the majority (probably the vast majority) of these high-selling titles were sold at 99 cents — I know almost all of John Lock’s titles were sold at $0.99 and most of Hocking’s were as well. So, 44 indie authors in the world have managed to make $35,000+ (before taxes and expenses) through selling e-books on Amazon — and we’re assuming each author may have written about 10 books, which would take several years, if not a decade or more. (Hocking has 11 books on Amazon, and Locke has 12.)

I’m not writing this to either convince you or dissuade you from writing a book, or trying to sell it on Amazon. I’ve long maintained that if you want to write a book, my best advice to you is to write it for yourself, because you enjoy the writing process and have a story to tell — assume you won’t make any money from it, and if you still yearn to write, then go for it. After that, you can decide if the potential monetary payoff is enough to offset the time, effort, and money you’ll spend, and the inevitable criticism you’ll receive by self-publishing. (For what it’s worth, even though I’m not yet one of the 44, I am glad of my decision to self-publish.) But I wanted to include the numbers above, which were the first I’ve seen that really specifically give us a clue as to how common these success stories are. They prove that it certainly is possible to “strike it rich” as an independent author, but it takes a lot of work, and the odds of you even making a living (let alone getting rich) are still quite low.

Aug 2011 e-book sales rise to $88.8M

Clocking in with what many cultures will consider an auspicious number, August 2011 e-book sales increased to $88.8M, the second-highest month on record (behind only February 2011’s $90.3M). That marks an increase of 116.5% over last year. Meanwhile, according to the Association of American Publishers:

All trade print segments had a decline in August sales with the largest coming in mass market paperback where sales from reporting companies fell 36.4%. … Sales were off by double digits in all trade print segments in the January-August period.

Ouch. For those of you keeping score, e-book sales in the first 8 months of 2011 are up to $649.2M (an increase of 116.5% over last year, more than double). The AAP now only sporadicly reports print book sales figures, but based on percentages, mass-market paperback sales in August were about $34.9M, well under half of e-book sales.

For the past 13 months:

• Aug 2010: $39.0 M
• Sep 2010: $39.9 M
• Oct 2010: $40.7 M
• Nov 2010: $46.6 M
• Dec 2010: $49.5 M
• Jan 2011: $69.9 M
• Feb 2011: $90.3 M
• Mar 2011: $69.0 M
• Apr 2011: $72.8 M
• May 2011: $87.7 M
• June 2011: $80.2 M
• July 2011: $82.6M
• Aug 2011: $88.8M

July e-book sales came in at $82.6M, more than double the amount from July of last year, and slightly above June’s total of $80.2M.

July 2011 e-book sales: $82.6M

The recap for the past 13 months:

• July 2010: $40.8 M
• Aug 2010: $39.0 M
• Sep 2010: $39.9 M
• Oct 2010: $40.7 M
• Nov 2010: $46.6 M
• Dec 2010: $49.5 M
• Jan 2011: $69.9 M
• Feb 2011: $90.3 M
• Mar 2011: $69.0 M
• Apr 2011: $72.8 M
• May 2011: $87.7 M
• June 2011: $80.2 M
• July 2011: $82.6M

Sadly, it seems that Publisher’s Weekly has stopped giving us much data regarding print book sales, making it harder to compare and analyze the data, as I am wont to do. All they provided this month was the adult hardcover figure, which was $91.2M. They did tell us that:

Despite the strong July performance, adult hardcover sales were down 17.8% for the seven month period, while e-book sales were up 152.8%, to $560.5 million. With the exception of adult hardcover, sales were down in all other print trade segments in July.

UPDATE: Undaunted, I went back and estimated sales based on the percent changes provided and my records of last year’s sales figures, and came up with the following chart of e-book sales as a percentage of total e-book plus print book sales.

Percentage of e-book sales to total print + e-book sales

The raw figures: 23.4% for January, 26.6% in February, 16.9% in March, 18.8% in April, 23.5% in May, and 26.9% in June. Note the huge bump just after the holidays (as people fill up the new e-readers they got as gifts), and then the reversion to the continuing upward trend thereafter.

June e-book sales are in, at $80.2M, which is a little below May’s $87.7M figure. Overall, sales so far in 2011 have been somewhat up and down, but each month has been consistently well above even the best month of 2010 (December’s $49.5M).

Monthly e-book sales. June 2011: $80.2M

To recap, the last 13 months of e-book sales data:

• June 2010: $29.8 M
• July 2010: $40.8 M
• Aug 2010: $39.0 M
• Sep 2010: $39.9 M
• Oct 2010: $40.7 M
• Nov 2010: $46.6 M
• Dec 2010: $49.5 M
• Jan 2011: $69.9 M
• Feb 2011: $90.3 M
• Mar 2011: $69.0 M
• Apr 2011: $72.8 M
• May 2011: $87.7 M
• June 2011: $80.2 M

Quarterly e-book sales. Q2 2011: $240.7M

For the quarter, e-book sales came in at nearly a quarter of a billion dollars, at $240.7M. After last quarter’s $229.2M, e-books are not quite on pace to hit a billion dollars for the year. (Publisher’s Weekly says first-half 2011 sales total $473.8M, which is a little higher than adding all their monthly totals; they seem to add in some late-reporting sales or something.)

Sadly, PW also seems to have stopped providing as much detail on breaking down print book sales (hardcovers, trade paperbacks, etc.), although they did reveal that print book sales “plunged” in June, with trade paperback sales down a whopping 64%, adult hardcovers down 25%, and mass-market paperbacks down 22%. Certainly the closing of Borders stores has not been kind to print book sales. While they didn’t provide breakdowns, with those steep declines it’s hard to see any print categories beating out e-book sales in June.

UPDATE: Based on my comparisons to last year’s figures, we can safely estimate that even the largest print category (adult hardcover at roughly $55.6M) was well under e-book sales for the month. I’ve also dug up some 6-month figures for the first half of 2011; print books (all 5 trade categories) combined to total $1,672.2M for the year (compared to $473.8M for e-books), which means that e-books accounted for a record 26.9% of all print/e-book sales for the month, and averaged 22.1% for the first half of 2011.

The May 2011 e-book sales stats bring with them the announcement that, so far in 2011, e-books are the #2 format, behind only adult trade paperbacks, and ahead of both adult hardcovers and adult mass-market paperbacks. E-book sales are up 160.1% since last year, while adult trade paperbacks (-17.9%), adult hardcovers (-23.4%), and adult mass market paperbacks (-30.1%) all suffered double-digit declines from 2010. Year to date 2011 totals (with YTD 2010 numbers in parenthesis) are:

1. Adult trade paperback: $473.1 M (576.4 M)
2. E-Books: $389.7 M ($149.8 M)
3. Adult hardcover: $386.2 M ($504.1 M)
4. Adult mass-market paperback: $185.1 M ($264.8 M)

While the Association of American Publishers didn’t break down monthly sales figures this month, subtracting out previous months’ totals gives me an estimate of $87.7 M for May 2011 e-book sales (just behind February’s $90.3 M record). Adult trade paperbacks were $96.5 M, adult hardcover $82.9 M, and adult mass-market $33.1 M. (Note that their YTD totals and prior months’ sales don’t usually add up exactly; I assume they update and adjust prior month totals without telling us. But this estimate should be close.)

May 2011 e-book sales: $87.7 M

Those figures are strong, putting e-books very near a pace to hit $1 billion in sales this year (which I predicted after seeing the February figures). For review, the past 13 months of e-book sales:

• May 2010: $29.3 M
• June 2010: $29.8 M
• July 2010: $40.8 M
• Aug 2010: $39.0 M
• Sep 2010: $39.9 M
• Oct 2010: $40.7 M
• Nov 2010: $46.6 M
• Dec 2010: $49.5 M
• Jan 2011: $69.9 M
• Feb 2011: $90.3 M
• Mar 2011: $69.0M
• Apr 2011: $72.8M
• May 2011: $87.7 M

Very impressive that e-books have outsold both mass-market paperbacks and hardcovers over a 5-month period, industry-wide (Amazon announced several months ago that e-books had overtaken all print book sales through Amazon.com). In addition, these figures do not include independent author e-book sales (which are becoming more and more significant, with some indies selling over 1 million copies), and, by focusing on revenue, they understate the number of e-books sold when compared to print books that normally cost more per unit.

April 2011 e-book sales came in at $72.8M, slightly up from March’s $69.0M, but well below February’s record $90.3M (past months’ data can be found here). This is up 165.7% from last April’s total of $27.4M.

April 2011 e-book sales: $72.8M

Prior months’ totals:

• Apr 2010: $27.4 M
• May 2010: $29.3 M
• June 2010: $29.8 M
• July 2010: $40.8 M
• Aug 2010: $39.0 M
• Sep 2010: $39.9 M
• Oct 2010: $40.7 M
• Nov 2010: $46.6 M
• Dec 2010: $49.5 M
• Jan 2011: $69.9 M
• Feb 2011: $90.3 M
• Mar 2011: $69.0M
• Apr 2011: $72.8M

In comparison to print, e-books were the #3 trade book format this month (they topped all formats back in February), behind adult hardcover and trade paperback, but still well over double adult mass-market paperback. For print:

• Adult hardcover: $111.4M
• Adult trade paperback: $95.9M
• Adult mass-market paperback: $28.5M
• Young adult hardcover: $41.2M
• Young adult trade paperback: $36.8M

In total, e-books accounted for 18.8% of all trade book + e-book sales, down from nearly 30% in February, but still a healthy percentage that is more than double last year’s average of 8.2%.

Please excuse my excitement as I share a personal milestone with you: I just sold the 10,000th copy of my novels.

I would like to sincerely thank each and every person who made one of those 10,000 purchases, along with everyone who has helped me edit the novels, or supported me along the way. And a special thank you to anyone who left an Amazon review, or told your friends about the books — without you, I never would have gotten to 10,000 sales.

For anyone who’d like to become the first of my next 10,000 readers, you can find excerpts, reviews, and information about my three novels here:

• Right Ascension: a space opera, science fiction epic that combines action & adventure with the exploration of ethical dilemmas.
• Declination: the sequel to Right Ascension.
• The Twiller: a humorous, satirical romp across the Universe that just might remind you of some comical situations on our own planet.

Thank you again for the support, and happy reading!

Fresh off impressive all-time high sales of $90.3M in February (which made them the highest-grossing format, ahead of hardcovers and trade paperbacks), e-book sales settled down to a more reasonably robust $69.0M for March of 2011. That’s very close to January’s $69.9M. As compared to March 2010, the March 2011 numbers are an increase of 142%.

This puts overall Q1 2011 e-book sales at a record $229.2M, an increase of 157% from the same period a year earlier.

As explained by the Association of American Publishers, the large January sales and huge February sales were a result of post-Xmas e-book buying:

According to publishers, these figures are consistent with seasonal buying patterns; in particular, a return to print editions after the post-holiday period of buying, or “loading,” of e-Books into e-reader devices.

This is no surprise; a very similar pattern emerged last year (although with a more even Jan-Feb-Mar distribution, without the huge February spike):

• Jan 2010: $31.9 M
• Feb 2010: $28.9 M
• Mar 2010: $28.5 M
• Apr 2010: $27.4 M
• May 2010: $29.3 M
• June 2010: $29.8 M
• July 2010: $40.8 M
• Aug 2010: $39.0 M
• Sep 2010: $39.9 M
• Oct 2010: $40.7 M
• Nov 2010: $46.6 M
• Dec 2010: $49.5 M
• Jan 2011: $69.9 M
• Feb 2011: $90.3 M
• Mar 2011: $69.0M

Print books made a comeback, totaling $96.6M for adult trade hardcover sales, $115.9M for trade paperbacks, and $55.2M for mass-market paperbacks. Print books have sales surges before Xmas, and then a slow period after Xmas when publishers don’t release any big blockbuster titles. Thus, January and February are simultaneously the strongest months for e-books and the weakest months for print books.

One other note on March’s decrease from February’s sales: just like sales dipped to their lowest point of the year last April, the first month that 5 of the “Big 6″ publishers raised e-book prices under “agency model” pricing, March 1 marked the date when Random House joined ranks and embraced the agency model as well. Is it a coincidence that we saw another large dip in sales that month? Will March 2011 remain the lowest point for e-book sales in 2011? Probably a good bet. (We got a good hint that April numbers should be strong when Amazon announced that its e-book sales overtook all print sales combined in April.)

Looking forward, I’d expect sales to rebound slowly over the next few months, and they probably won’t top February’s breakout numbers until the second half of the year. By the end of 2011, we should see even more $99 e-readers, perhaps a rumored Amazon tablet, a rumored B&N Nook Classic 2, and e-book sales in the $100M per month and 20-25% market share ranges.

A few months after Amazon announced that its e-book sales overtook hardcover books, then paperback books, Amazon today announced that e-book sales on Amazon overtook all formats of print books combined — and that’s even excluding free Kindle e-books and including print books with no e-book counterparts.

From the Amazon press release:

• Since April 1, for every 100 print books Amazon.com has sold, it has sold 105 Kindle books. This includes sales of hardcover and paperback books by Amazon where there is no Kindle edition. Free Kindle books are excluded and if included would make the number even higher.
• So far in 2011, the tremendous growth of Kindle book sales, combined with the continued growth in Amazon’s print book sales, have resulted in the fastest year-over-year growth rate for Amazon’s U.S. books business, in both units and dollars, in over 10 years. This includes books in all formats, print and digital. Free books are excluded in the calculation of growth rates.
• In the five weeks since its introduction, Kindle with Special Offers for only $114 is already the bestselling member of the Kindle family in the U.S.
• Amazon sold more than 3x as many Kindle books so far in 2011 as it did during the same period in 2010.
• Less than one year after introducing the UK Kindle Store, Amazon.co.uk is now selling more Kindle books than hardcover books, even as hardcover sales continue to grow. Since April 1, Amazon.co.uk customers are purchasing Kindle books over hardcover books at a rate of more than 2 to 1.

Pretty remarkable. Amazon is the world’s #1 bookseller, and is now selling more e-books than print books (5% more), and I’m sure the numbers will continue to shift even further in favor of e-books going forward. How long until Barnes & Noble releases a similar announcement? (We probably have a couple of years or so left for that one.)

Another interesting tidbit from the press release was the news that e-book sales in 2011 have tripled from 2010 numbers. The rate of e-book sales and market share increases shows no sign of slowing down.

Also of note: the $114 Kindle Wi-Fi with “Special Offers” (which I wrote about here) has overtaken the other Kindle versions to become the best-selling Kindle at Amazon. Perhaps not terribly surprising considering it is the least expensive version, but it does seem to show that a lot of people don’t mind ads on their Kindles and will accept them in exchange for a lower price ($25 off in this case).

(One last note: the Kindle store now stands at 950,000 e-books, closing fast on 1 million, which it should hit by July.)