Thanks for your excellent comment. We’re definitely on the same page here. As POD prices continue to decrease, it just makes too much sense for all parties for what we’ve described NOT to happen.

Publishers get to avoid a large part of the up-front costs that make their business model so risky; they avoid shipping and warehousing costs; they never have to worry about being stuck with huge demand and not enough printed copies to meet it; and they can finally say goodbye to returns, which claim anywhere from 25% to 75% of books printed.

Bookstores get infinite selection and inventory (to match Amazon), but with the huge advantage of 10-minute printing and delivery instead of 2-4 day shipping; they get to run much smaller (and thus less expensive) stores, but with exponentially more inventory; and, like publishers, they’ll never run out of copies of hot-selling books.

Readers get the ability to get any book they can think of printed for them in 10 minutes, and they retain places devoted to books, where they can browse and mingle and sample and get printed versions of books for display or gifts.

As you say, authors will benefit from these changes as well: popular authors are ensured that bookstores never run out of their books, mid-list authors never have to go out of print, and independent authors like us can get into the game as well. On top of that, hopefully some of the cost and efficiency savings (along with the lower up-front financial risk on the part of publishers) will be shared with authors as well.

Far from the “death” of bookstores, I see this as a renaissance.

I’ve had almost exactly the same vision of the “future of book stores” kicking around inside my head for the past year or so… it’s the only model that makes any sense at all.

“Build a Bear” at Borders is just doomed to fail at every level. I can’t imagine that anyone with a brain thinks this is a serious initiative.

I believe there will always be a substantial market for printed books because they are cheap-ish and convenient and require no tech to work (outside of eyes).

I do think, however, that the current book superstore model is doomed because of both ebooks and online sales. The stores we have now are unsustainable.

Pbooks will be significantly cannibalized by ebooks; I believe dedicated ebook readers are only a transition tech on the way to the mainstreaming of reading ebooks on tablets, smart phones and other multi-purpose gadgets but ebooks will become mainstream sooner or later.

“Everything old is new again” as stores will revert back to the Waldenbooks-sized stores (a fraction of the current Borders/B&N stores) and about half (or more) of the retail space will be devoted to the “Browsers’ Cafe.”

There will be a much smaller collection of physical books to browse through (only the high volume sellers) but everyone will get a loaner e-reader to browse for titles and sample selections so you can order a POD copy to be printed in the back. (Or you can order and download to your ereading program of choice — Kindle, B&N, IReader, whatever — maybe the retailers will have some sort of “bonus program” or exclusive store-branded content to make it worthwhile to order from the book retailer rather than Amazon, Kobo or the other online-only retailers).

While publishers will fight the POD at the store model, it actually is ideal for them: They eliminate all printing and shipping costs and have no returns. They become book “packagers” — their value comes in finding authors, preparing a finished, professional book and marketing it, not unlike television networks. But their days of being a company whose main business is selling paper with ink on it is just about over.

With this model, the customer should get a decent price and it should work for retailers, too: The store keeps “actual printing costs” and splits the proceeds with the publisher, so this model can be vastly more profitable for both publisher and retailer than the current “ship, strip and return” model. Retailers also save on labor costs because they can cut the number of clerks on the floor due to decreased need for shelving, pulling for returns and merchandising.

This approach also keeps bookstores meaningful in the future. As it is, physical bookstores risk being made irrelevant because readers are increasingly getting used to not finding the title they want in stock so they just go to Amazon or BN.com and order it for home delivery.

With this model, bookstores have the advantage of near instantaneous delivery of a printed book rather than waiting 3-4 days.

And the final advantage — perhaps the biggest one for me as an independent author — is that I can get in the game as an independent publisher. Now, I have zero chance of getting into B&N and Borders except as a special order. But with this model, a reader can stumble across my book while browsing, order it and get a POD copy at the store in minutes, putting me on an even footing with all of the large publishing houses.

But you’re right, both companies are secretive and often “creative” with the numbers they put out, which is why I wanted to try to shed some light on the real numbers in this post. From everything I can tell, in this case, I think the truth is closer to Amazon’s numbers than Apple’s.

As for reading on the iPad, some people swear they like it as much as reading on an e-Ink screen. That’s not the case for my eyes or for most people I know, but to each his own. Whatever people want to read on (Kindle, Nook, iPad, paper book, or stone tablet) is really fine by me — I just wanted to try to highlight some plusses and minuses and clear up some common misconceptions about e-Ink vs. LCD screens.

Certainly, the numbers from one person don’t paint the whole picture. However, when that person is the best-selling e-book author of all time, and is talking about sales in the millions, it probably gives us a pretty good idea. Also, as you point out, several other authors (including Joe Konrath, who sells in the tens of thousands) have similar percentages to mine. And my own numbers alone don’t prove the case, but we are talking about thousands of sales, and they do help support (a) Amazon’s unambiguous statement, (b) Patterson’s numbers, and (c) Konrath’s numbers. Add all that together and I’m pretty confident that Amazon’s share is what it claims. =)

I suspect that Apple doesn’t sell much in the way of Indie Authors at all yet. Their original figure of 22 percent WAS born out by figures of the major publishers. And both Amazon and Apple are known for their secrecy and spin.